We have published today a discussion paper which explores the topic of public sector pay in Northern Ireland.
Launching the paper, Sir Robert Chote, Chair of the NI Fiscal Council, said:
Public sector pay is the single largest element of day-to-day spending funded by the Executive and an increasingly significant source of budget pressure. This discussion paper examines why the cost of maintaining public sector pay in NI appears to be rising faster than the funding generated through existing arrangements.
We are not taking a view on whether pay parity with England is desirable. Our role is to examine the fiscal implications of policy choices and to assess what they mean for the sustainability of the Executive's finances.
Our initial analysis suggests that the challenge is not primarily about public sector workers in NI being paid more than their counterparts elsewhere. Rather, the evidence points towards the size and structure of the workforce and the way public services are organised and funded.
When funding generated by pay awards in England is insufficient to cover the cost of matching those awards in NI, the Executive faces difficult choices. We view this report as the start of a conversation rather than its conclusion.
The findings are provisional and the paper should be regarded as a first phase of work. Significant challenges remain around data availability and comparability across jurisdictions.
The paper will be presented at the Fiscal Council's Annual Conference on 25 September as part of a wider consultation process aimed at gathering views from stakeholders and informing the next phase of the Council's work.
The paper is available here: Sustainability Report 2026: Special Focus - Public sector pay | NI Fiscal Council